Do Provisional Estimates of Output Miss Economic Turning Points (K. E. Dynan and D. W. Elmendorf (Federal Reserve Board)). Click here to download the working paper version.
The Use and Abuse of ‘Real-Time’ Data in Economic Forecasting (E. Koenig (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), S. Dolmas, and Jeremy Piger (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)). The Review of Economics and Statistics. Click here to download the paper.
The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gaps in Real Time (A. Orphanides (Federal Reserve Board) and S. van Norden (HEC)). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Click here to download the paper.