1) “Modeling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Downside Risk” Davide Delle Monache (Bank of Italy), Andrea De Polis (University of Warwick), and Ivan Petrella (University of Warwick). Discussant: Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania).
2) “Understanding Growth-at-Risk: A Markov-Switching Approach” Dario Caldara, Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Pablo Cuba-Borda, and Francesca Loria (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). Discussant: Andrea Carriero (Queen Mary University of London).
3) “Monetary Policy Effects with an Explicit Model of the Fed’s Information Set” Christian Matthes (Indiana University), Lars Other (University of Jena), and Maik H. Wolters (University of Würzburg). Discussant: Jonas Arias (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia).
4) “Firm Inflation Expectations and Uncertainty” Brent H. Meyer (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta), Nicholas B. Parker (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta), and Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University). Discussant: Carola Binder (Haverford College).
5) “Consumption in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from UK Transactions Data” Sinem Hacioglu Hoke (Bank of England), Diego R. Känzig (London Business School), and Paolo Surico (London Business School). Discussant: Domenico Giannone (Amazon).
6) “Nowcasting Norwegian Consumption with Debit Card Transaction Data” Knut Are Aastveit, Tuva Marie Fastbø, Eleonora Granziera, Kenneth Saeterhagen Paulsen, and Kjersti Naess Torstensen (Norges Bank). Discussant: John Galbraith (McGill University).
7) “Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: The Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements” Ben Gardner, Chiara Scotti, and Clara Vega (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). Discussant: Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins University).
8) “Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Time of COVID-19” Giorgio E. Primiceri (Northwestern University) and Andrea Tambalotti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York). Discussant: Allan Timmermann (University of California, San Diego).
9) “Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions” Jacopo Cimadomo (European Central Bank), Domenico Giannone (Amazon), Michele Lenza (European Central Bank and CARES), Francesca Monti (King’s Business School), and Andrej Sokol (European Central Bank). Discussant: Minchul Shin (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia).
10) “Real-Time Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession” Francis X. Diebold (University of Pennsylvania). Discussant: Mark W. Watson (Princeton University).
11) “Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections” Laura Liu (Indiana University), Hyungsik Roger Moon (University of Southern California), and Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania). Discussant: Graham Elliott (University of California, San Diego)
Real-time Economics Conference 